Monday, 3 February 2014

Rebuilding consumer confidence - the brand role

Nielsen's latest Global Survey of Consumer Confidence reveals that in Q4 2013, 60% of Britons are seeking to reduce their electricity bills, 58% have cut back on expanding their wardrobes, 57% have cut out takeaways and 55% are switching to cheaper brands in the supermarket.

As reported in The Guardian, the poll of 30,000 people has uncovered the first dip in consumers' confidence since 2011. Chris Morley, managing director of Nielsen UK and Ireland, said: "British consumers are increasingly recognising improvements in the economy, but they are still cautious and likely to continue to modify their buying and consumption habits to save money"

It is obviously impossible and inappropriate for brands to attempt to shift the mood of the entire population, that being a job for the politicians (!). Better for brand owners to focus on that pool of loyal users, the ones that have remained loyal despite the pressures and blows to credibility (horsemeat etc), the consumers that continue to believe in your brand, albeit at reduced consumption levels.

Working from what you know works, it can be easier to encourage existing users to consume more, rather than trying to attract new users to the brand.
  • A key first step is to reassess latest consumer needs vs. brand attributes
  • ...and checking that the brand delivers more than it says on the tin, every time....
  • Check post-consumption delight -who needs satisfaction...?
  • Optimise consumption levels by ensuring 100% onshelf and multichannel availability 24/7 - why take a chance on preventing any potential consumer from accessing your greatest asset?
  • Share with consumers other uses of the brand revealed by regular users
  • Then begin to encourage existing users of your current brand to try another brand in your portfolio, capitalising on your mutual knowledge and emerging confidence in the relationship
When loyal consumers have experienced and have confidence in your offering on these two levels - existing and new products - it is time to build on the ability of satisfied, savvy consumers to tell their friends....

A slow approach?
Then how about taking a chance on delivery vs. promise, and allowing the other half of the 'tell a friend' mechanism to kick-in, whereby a delighted consumer tells one friend, whereas a complaining consumer tells ten eager listeners, via every medium available...much, much faster! 

Friday, 31 January 2014

Economic crash...

Source: The Slog

Ten fastest growing jobs in US at risk from automation

The Atlantic reports a recent Oxford University study by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne that calculated the odds of "computerization" for the 600+ jobs that the US Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks. They range from 96% automatable (office secretaries) to 0.9% (registered nurses).

Here are the ten fastest-growing jobs and the odds that robots and software will replace them:

1) Personal care aides: 74%
2) Registered nurses: 0.9%
3) Retail salespersons: 92% i.e. shop-workers
4) Combined food prep & serving workers: 92%
5) Home health aides: 39%
6) Physician assistant: 9%
7) Secretaries and admin assistants: 96%
8) Customer service representatives: 55%
9) Janitors and cleaners: 66%
10) Construction workers: 71%

Obvious food for thought, given that NAMs do not feature on the list....

In fact as Derek Thompson points out in The Atlantic article, computers are historically good at executing routines, but they’re bad at finding patterns, communicating with people, and making decisions, which is what managers are paid to do. This is why some people think managers are, for the moment, one of the largest categories immune to the rushing wave of AI.

Time for emphasising your skills at  finding patterns, communicating with people, and making decisions, and above all, avoid allowing the job to become dull, boring and repetitive, just in case...

Hat-tip to Andrew Sullivan

Thursday, 30 January 2014

Self-checkout rage: Nearly one in five self-checkout shoppers steal goods at the bagging area...

In a survey of 2,664 people by VoucherCodesPro, reported in the Telegraph, one in five admit that self-checkout rage causes them to steal an average of £15 of mainly fruit & veg per month, although toiletries account 26% of items stolen.

The results suggest people steal regularly once they realise they can get away with it – with 57% of the thieves admitting they first took goods because they couldn’t work the machines, and 51% believing they are less likely to be caught.

Given that retailers introduced self-scanning/checkouts to reduce labour costs, it obviously negates the advantage to add a team of one-on-one 'helpers' to the self-checkout area...

One solution might be to try the Costco idea of spot-checks of bags vs. receipts which does not appear to cause offence...? 

Alternatively, why add this new 'route to theft' to 'grape-grazing', aisle-snacking and other methods that regular shoppers use to help retailers maintain high shrinkage levels...?

Wednesday, 29 January 2014

US shops that only offer food past its sell-by date

According to today's news in the Guardian that a man is to be put on trial in February after he was allegedly caught stealing from the bins behind an Iceland store in London, it appears that Freegans, or bin scavengers, are becoming a feature of the current flatline environment.

Paul May, a freelance web designer, is expected to argue in court that he does not consider taking the mushrooms, tomatoes, cheese, and cakes from the garbage outside of Iceland as illegal, because the food was  going to be disposed of and he needed it to feed himself, the Guardian reported.

Given that the Freegan movement started in New York a decade ago, it follows that the US should be first in opening stores that only offer food that is past its sell-by date.

Doug Rauch’s new venture The Daily Table, due to open in May, in Dorchester, Massachusetts, will be part grocery store and part cafe, specializing in healthy, inexpensive food and catering to the underserved population in Dorchester, Mass. What makes it controversial – at least at first glance – is Rauch’s business model: His store will exclusively collect and sell food that had crept past its “sell-by” date, rendering it unsellable in other, more conventional supermarkets.

But the real challenge, in Rauch’s vision, isn’t just getting that excess food to the people who need it. It’s convincing them that it’s worth eating.

Rauch is looking for a market-driven solution to food waste. The store will be a non-profit, but after an initial round of funding gets it started, he intends for it to be self-sustaining.

Interesting to see how long after the Freegan Garbage theft trial, the UK follows the US example with shops offering past sell-by food...

...and as an extension of consumers' tendency to 'make do', how much demand will be taken out of the market...

NB Update on Iceland Three case:
Following an outcry on Twitter and questions about the public interest value in pursuing a prosecution – with even bosses at Iceland expressing doubts – the Crown Prosecution Service today announced that it was dropping the case.

Tuesday, 28 January 2014

When online meets real world - how import restrictions are raising the bar...

With different motives, some governments are trying to slow down the development of imported online purchases.

As reported in the Financial Times, Russia, one of the world’s fastest-growing e-commerce markets, has imposed new customs regulations - submission of some original documents and credit card payment records - to hinder courier deliveries to private customers. DHL and FedEx are reported to have suspended express deliveries from abroad to individuals in Russia because of extra paperwork on all parcels for personal use, regardless of shipment value.

Currently just 2% of Russian retail sales are conducted online, but that is expected to rise to 5%, more than tripling the size of the online retail market by 2015, according to Morgan Stanley.

Incidentally, if you think the Russian restrictions are bad, Argentina goes one better, albeit in an attempt to cope with falling levels of foreign currency reserves…  Under the new rules, shoppers can make just two purchases each year from foreign online and mail-order companies. Any purchases beyond that will be treated as imports, and will require extensive paperwork such as a signed declaration to the customs office in advance, before they can collect their packages, for each international purchase.

Given their pragmatism, it is probable that Amazon will escalate their operation in Russia to restore the simplicity of its business model, and possibly an aggregator role to provide an Amazon  route into Russia for those who cannot, or will not, play in the customs ball-park…

…while the authorities have full access to internal traffic for tax purposes…

Optimising your next conference call



These conferences call experiences will probably strike a chord...

Given the potential savings on travel time, conference calls are worth getting right so why not check out Seth Godin's seven key principles?

And with a bit of the correct practice, perhaps even worth experimenting on the buyer?

Monday, 27 January 2014

Hedge Funds move on Major Multiples Store Portfolios

According to reports in The Sunday Times (p1 Business section, 26-01-2014) hedge funds have taken stakes in Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Morrisons with a radical plan to hive off their property empires.  In other words, American activist investors (Elliott, and apparently other activist funds have acquired small stakes in the three retailers) believe that, especially following disappointing Christmas results, the stock market undervalues the properties and that hiving off and flotation of the new property companies would release some of that value by appealing to a new type of ‘property-focused’ investor..

The plan is based upon a similar move last year by Loblaw.
(Morrisons are already exploring some property release, and Dalton Philips includes Loblaw on his CV...)

The ‘hidden’ value:
Retailer          Market capitalisation  Estate value   'Surplus'
Tesco                      £26bn                      £38bn             £12bn                                                                              
Sainsbury’s              £6.9bn                    £11.5bn          £4.6bn                                                                          
Morrisons                £5.7bn                     £9bn              £3.3bn

More details are available in The Sunday Times article.

Incidentally, for those in H&B, Elliott recently forced US drugs distributor McKesson to raise its bid for Celesio, in a deal now concluded.

Whilst the activist-investor route may well be resisted by the retailers, the idea of releasing value that could be part-returned to shareholders might appeal, thus propping up the share price…

However, in doing so, the retailers would lose some control, and also pick up an additional KPI based on maintaining the value of their retail properties, at a time when all three are focused on optimising like-for-like sales… However, if the hedge funds increase their stakes, then increasing shareholder value moves up the agenda, along with the aggravation...

For NAMs, all of this means that a renewed emphasis on financial performance, the value of trade investment and especially the ability to calculate and demonstrate the impact of all supplier-support on the retailer’s share price, becomes a critical requirement in the day-job…