The doubling rule - why Amazon will outgrow Walmart, soon...!

The doubling rule, or Rule-of-70, provides a simple way to calculate the approximate number of years it takes for the level of a variable growing at a constant rate to double in size.
This rule states N = 70/rate-of-growth, where N is the number of years it takes to double.
More detailed maths treatment here
The same rule can be extended to the Rule-of-110  (trebling size) and the Rule-of-140 (quadrupling size).

Amazon example:
Given Amazon’s CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 26%, the Rule-of-140 shows that based on its current sales of $48bn, its sales will be $192bn in 5.4 years.
By comparison, Walmart’s 2012 sales were $444bn, with a CAGR of 3.1%...
Amazing Amazon catchup here 

Exponential growth really explained…
For more about how exponential growth and the Rule-of-70 can explain and impact every aspect of your life, upside and downside, we urge you to invest 10 minutes in watching the above vid. (4.5m views to date...)

Nothing will seem the same again…ever.

Increasing network productivity now, before you need it

In a flat-line economy, NAMs are faced with a dilemma: can networking be a ‘natural’ instinctive process, or does it require method in order to be mutually productive?
Unfortunately, reaching high levels of network productivity can take more years than are available, especially in unprecedented times.

Instinctive networking: 
Before the uncertainties arising from the global financial crisis, networking for NAMs and other functions was a casual, ad hoc process conducted offline in spare time, with little concern or need for measurable output.

High output networking:
Now, with many ‘networkees’ fighting for survival, and flooded with incoming overtures, networking entry-barriers are high, making response-achievement even more difficult.
We believe that a systematic, focused approach can help you now, before you need it.

See our free 3-page guide here 

Tesco's virtual store, the end of QR?

Tesco’s virtual store at Gatwick is proving popular*
A subtle point to note on the video is the fact that Tesco are using barcodes for product scan-identification rather than QR codes….
Could Tesco be ahead of the QR game?.

The premature demise of QR codes
According to US blog: The Shelf Edge the QR code is dead.
'The problem is that few marketers understood, or understand, how to use these codes; they were a novelty at best, but one that in practice offered little real value to consumers. It was this lack of value that contributed to the codes’ demise'.

Opportunities or Threats in the UK?
Given their relative novelty in the UK, perhaps QR codes should be used more imaginatively by linking users to a mobile-optimised sites that offer real value?

In other words, someone needs to think through the fundamentals of consumer need, and optimise the technology to match, while there is some life remaining in QR codes?

* See video onsite usage and commentary by passengers on here.

Roy of the Rovers - a lesson in fair play?

Last week’s demise of The Dandy brought to mind another childhood source of entertainment and insight, Roy of the Rovers.
Like most other 10 year olds, each week I eagerly awaited the arrival of The Tiger comic, featuring the life and times of Melchester’s star player.

Fair Play?
However, on one shocking occasion, a rival player, in full view of the reader, but out-of-sight of the referee, actually flicked the ball with his hand to enhance his shot. This unlawful move so outraged me I rapidly scanned the rest of the strip in vain for evidence that the move had been noted as the subject of a penalty, at least..
My sense of injustice was such that for the next five weeks I was on the newsagent’s door-step by opening time, awaiting delivery of the latest edition to check whether the authorities had taken any action..

Gradually it dawned on me that perhaps football, life and even business itself was not always fair.

I then began to wonder if there were other potential career-enhancing insights available via Roy’s storyline?

A source of continuous education…?
Unlike more gently-reared modern players, Roy enjoyed a 39 year playing career, until the loss of his foot in a helicopter crash in 1993. To keep the strip exciting, Melchester was almost every year either competing for major honours or struggling against relegation to a lower division, allowing repeating opportunities for readers to develop their numeracy skills, especially in calculating the odds in each scenario.

Planning & focus?
The strip followed the structure of the football season, thus providing  great awareness of deadlines, the need for planning and teamwork, but especially the ability to optimise output within the time constraints of a match, against rivals intent upon minimising the impact of such endeavours.

Global reach?
Geographical insight was enhanced via the team’s foreign travel. In the several months each year when there was no UK football the most common summer storyline saw Melchester touring a fictional country in an exotic part of the world, often South America, where they would invariably be kidnapped and held to ransom.

Negotiation against the odds?
During the first ten years of his playing career, Roy was kidnapped at least five times. This obviously enhanced readers’ negotiation and financial skills, helping them to distinguish cost and value of experience and longevity in a high-output career…

Career application?
Given the benefits of this source of inspiration and early induction, readers that later chose a NAM career appeared to arrive ready-made, exhibiting the ability to demonstrate "real 'Roy of the Rovers' stuff", displaying great skill, or results that went against the odds, in their dealings with the UK trade….

And often without the benefit of much formal training, curiously enough…

Pop-down shops – where train-dodging vendors and shoppers move fast, or else…

                                                                                 vid: Daily Mail
This open air Thai market needs quick wits - because eight times a day a train comes crashing through.
Just seconds before it is a bustling open-air marketplace with stallholders and shoppers haggling over the price of produce.
Then vendors pull back awnings and produce off the railway track, and afterwards restore their ‘pop-up’ shops, as if nothing has happened...

Getting away?
For NAMs who like an active holiday, Maeklong Market is in Samut Songkhram, Thailand, around 37 miles west of Bangkok. (Best book one-way, just in case...)

UK application?
Apart from some regulatory issues, Health & Safety would figure highly, not because of lack of stall-holder flexibility, but mainly due to unreliability of train timings…
Have a hyper-reactive weekend, from the Namnews Team!

Tesco catchup in the UK - a need for context?

Yesterday’s news of Tesco’s improved 3.4% sales growth is encouraging but needs to be kept in context:
- UK refocus: The company has completely refocused on the UK market, and has been spending appropriately (£1bn) since January
- Inflation: With food inflation running at 3.2%, Tesco is only slightly ahead
- Market growth: With the overall food market growing at 3.9%, Tesco is slightly behind
- Competition: Rivals are growing faster (Asda +6.2%, JS +4.6%)
- Fundamental ratios:
            -  where Tesco are:     ROCE12.3%, Net Margin5.9%, Stockturn 17.9 times, Gearing 55.8%
- Fundamental ratios:
            -  where Tesco need to be: ROCE 15%, Net Margin 5.0%, Stockturn 25 times, Gearing 30%
- Outside help: At 3.4% growth rate, a tightly-run Tesco will need considerable supplier support to improve these ratios, and hold UK market share
-      ..especially if they decide to take the nuclear pricing option 

Bearing in mind that ‘It ain't over till the fat lady sings…’, Tesco cannot afford to optimise overseas opportunities until this UK issue is resolved

In other words, Tesco needs to deliver on the fundamental key ratios and hold 31% market share, with growth matching that of the market, before being able to ‘park’ the UK….

As a supplier, it is now time to decide the extent to which you are prepared to offer a little help…

Living above the shop – optimising incremental space in retail

Houses and gardens have been built on top of the eight-storey Jiutian International Plaza in the densely populated Chinese city of Zhuzhou, where residential space is scarce at ground level.

In Brazil, false ceilings within reach of shoppers are used to merchandise Easter-eggs  with shoppers helping themselves (and paying!) during trips in the run-up to Easter.

Making chewing gum more Six-siting 
On a more mundane but equally creative level, unfazed by a dual-siting tradition, Adams gum were able to secure six separate sitings of their medicated chewing gum in Loblaws of Canada  by creating incremental space via blister-packs on walls and columns throughout the store near dental, confectionery, medicine, kids lunch and strong-tasting food categories, each site separately coded to check ROI per location.

In other words, when pressed for space in retail, creating incremental space can be the answer…

Application in the High Street
In the same way, incremental restoration of the living space above the shop could be a way of reviving UK high streets (see High Street revival recipe )

The online space-threat
However, for the truely creative thinker, the real use/threat of incremental space in retail has to be the growth of online in a flat-line market means that with a 13% share and growing at 14%, physical retail space in the UK is already 13% over capacity….
This means that retailers have to be increasingly open to ideas for optimisation of existing and incremental space by imaginative NAMs…

Couldn’t work here?
Perhaps these initiatives need to be forced a little, in these unprecedented times? 

An Amazonian window?

Yesterday’s news that Ocado is in risk of breaching its bank covenants, coupled with its fall in share price, could represent a takeover opportunity for Amazon

Loan covenant definition:
A condition with which the borrower must comply in order to adhere to the terms in the loan agreement. If the borrower does not act in accordance with the covenants, the loan can be considered in default and the lender has the right to demand payment (usually in full).

Minimum financial ratios
The borrower is required to maintain a certain level in key financial ratios such as:
- Minimum quick and current ratios (solvency & liquidity)
- Minimum Return on Assets and Return on Equity (profitability)
- Minimum equity, minimum working capital and maximum debt to worth (leverage)

Market impatience
Given that Ocado is forecast  to make a loss of 1.5% in 2012 and 2013, it is unlikely that in the current climate, the markets will be prepared to tolerate any further delay in achieving acceptable levels of profitability.
Moreover, a leading retail analyst has warned that online grocer Ocado is in significant danger of breaching its banking covenants this year, owing to a toxic cocktail of a "pile of debt and falling market share".

Ocado’s dilemma
Essentially, Ocado has reached a point that often causes problems for an undercapitalised business needing to fund the development of critical mass.
They have broken the back of grocery home delivery in an M25 enclosure that has the potential population to provide a profitable opportunity for the right company.

The Amazon opportunity
Amazon meanwhile needs a way of adding groceries to its repertoire and showing it can match traditional providers in terms of service level, profitably…

We believe that taking over Ocado would provide such an opportunity.

As you know, Amazon entered the UK grocery market last year with a piece-meal ‘multiple-delivery’ model that failed to impress anybody other than those people who saw it as merely an opening gambit.
Moreover, in July last year it was mooted  that the acquisition of Ocado might represent a good opportunity for Amazon, at a time when Ocado’s market capitalisation was £1bn.

With Ocado’s market capitalisation now having fallen to £365m, we believe that the likelihood of a bid is a running certainty…

NB If you want to catch up with Amazon see our free paper Amazing Amazon