Virtual shops vs. bricks – some spacial implications?

With a 2012 anticipated 13.2% share of all UK retail trade, and growing at 14%, in a flat-line market, online retail has to represent an unforeseen alternative to ‘real’ retail space. In other words, given the relatively slow reaction of retail space development to market demand, it could be said that UK retail space is already 13.2% over capacity, in that online is taking 13.2% of all retail sales. Moreover this situation will get worse as online grows, especially as online can react ‘instantly’ to market demand, scaling up at relatively little incremental cost…

The real space requirement:
In addition, as shops become more efficient, generating increased revenue per sq.ft., coupled with suppliers’ increased distribution efficiency (smaller quantities delivered more often = increased availability, 100%, zero-defect), adding store-level assortment, matched to local need, it can be seen that even less physical retail space will be required.

Buying time:
This means that major retailers will attempt to diversify even more to buy time, as they slowly readjust to market demand in terms of reducing their physical space i.e. sell off redundant shops, whilst taking some comfort in the growth of their online business, without fully appreciating the cannibalistic element…
Besides which, with Amazon at 50% of all online, no one can rest easy…

Supplier action:

• Suppliers need to reassess brands in terms of their bricks vs. online balance vs. real demand
• Where physical in-store presence is required, the brand will need focused support and performance-based-reward to justify its footprint
• Where shoppers need to handle the brand, suppliers will have to make case for purposeful ‘show-rooming’ and reward the retailer appropriately
• Suppliers need to drive store redundancy via 100% zero-defect supply, and optimise space productivity until a level of retail space is achieved that is more in line with market realities

All else is detail…

Tesco trials UK’s first virtual stores

                                                                                      pic: The Financial Times
Tesco on Monday launched a two-week trial of the UK’s first interactive virtual grocery store at London’s Gatwick airport, following positive results in Korea,  an innovation which generated 25 million online posts around the globe. See Tesco Vid

Holiday-makers in the North Terminal departure lounge can browse 80 core products, from milk and bread to toilet paper, displayed on 10 large refrigerator-sized touch screens. They can scan bar codes with a smartphone to place them in a Tesco.com online shopping basket, and arrange for delivery when they return from holiday.

On-site help
There are staff on hand to explain how it works, to talk shoppers through how to download the app and sign up to Tesco.com – if they aren’t already using it – and even a couple of iPads to let customers sign up there and then.

Roll-out options?
If the trial is successful, Tesco could position the interactive screens anywhere members of the public congregate, the only limitation being cost-effectiveness…

Korea reality vs. the UK?
However, a key difference between the two markets is that the online-distribution infrastructure in Korea is so well advanced that it is possible for commuters to place an online order en route and have the goods delivered on arrival home.

UK distribution limitations
In the UK it will be necessary for Tesco to so manage expectation that the new facility will be seen as an enhancement to normal online shopping, fitting in with the shopper’s routine ordering-delivery process.

Direct vs broadcast media?
In terms of funding, the bar-code units will probably replace traditional poster-advertising, whilst much of Tesco’s Press and TV media could possibly be converted to direct-response advertising by incorporating bar-codes wherever possible. It would also be possible to auction some premium product-space to appropriate brand-owners.

Threat to traditional media?
The future of Tesco’s remaining media usage, thus challenged by measurable response, has to be open to question, in these unprecedented times.
In response, major brand owners may explore the application of bar-codes to their own eposter advertising, directing consumers to trade-partner retailers, by negotiation…

Either way, we are on the brink of fully complementary shopping, adding another spoke to the wheel of omni-channel fulfillment…
A pointer for your omni-channel NAM? 

Who counts for the shopper when 33% is not the same as 33%?

Superficially, if some numerate NAMs feel that 33% off-the-price is about the same as 33% extra free, what hope has the shopper?

(For those who cannot wait, run the numbers as follows:
Assume Costa charge £3 for three shots of expresso
Deal 1  gets you three shots for £2 i.e. £0.66 a shot
Deal 2  gets you four shots for £3 i.e. £0.75 a shot)
Deal 1 is therefore marginally better for your pocket, and your blood pressure…

All of this suggests that by emphasising ‘extra free’, retailers can create the same impact on the consumer, yet earn more revenue per visit….
However, deeper down, this goes to the heart of the supplier-retailer-shopper relationship, the issue of trust in brand and shop equity..

Essentially, consumer-shoppers are in survival mode, and despite their recent experiences at the hands of politicians and bankers, ideally want to save time by placing their trust in brands and shops, until experience proves otherwise.
In other words, in order to maintain that trust, and minimise festering discontent, it is important that promotions anticipate 100% transparency.
This means educating the consumer as to the real value, in order that they can outsource part of their decision-making, leaving them more time to deal with the real rogues…

Otherwise, some smart-apped savvy consumer will tumble to the deception of ‘extra-free’, will not be able to bottle it up, and like all bad news…..

For 10 other ways that shoppers are weak at maths, see The Atlantic 
Thanks to Brian Loeb for the link: See FMCG Discussion Group

Olympics brand police - how companies are challenging the limits

A crackdown by 'logo police' on brands being linked to the Olympics without official sponsorship rights have been accused of "lunacy" for ordering shops to remove sausages, flowers and bagels shaped as the Olympic rings.

Some food stalls in the Olympics village are selling chocolate, chewing gum and savoury snacks from under the counter as they cannot display items not produced by key sponsors. However, as always, satire is proving to be one of the unintended consequences of the ban.

• Glasses company Specsavers used a diplomatic blunder by Olympic staff mixing up the North and South Korean flags at a football game to design an ad written partly in Korean with the two flags and a strapline: "Should have gone to Specsavers"
• Oddbins, has offered 30 percent discount to customers with a list of items of non-Olympics sponsors such as Nike trainers, Vauxhall car keys, an RBS MasterCard, an iPhone, a bill from British Gas and a receipt for a Pepsi bought at KFC..
• Bookmaker Paddy Power was told to remove posters advertising its official sponsorship of the "largest athletics event in London this year", referring to an egg and spoon race in London in Savigny-sur-Seille, France. LOCOG backed down and the posters are still up

Have an anarchically Olympian weekend, from the NamNews Team!
...ideally in the  "Capital of England during the Sport Matches that Occur Every Four Years during the Southern Hemisphere Winter, Which Happens to Be in This Year We Are in Now"
OK LOCOG?   (source: Gawker.com)

Tesco's credit rating – what it means for you?

Yesterday’s warning by Standard & Poor that ongoing pressure from intensifying competition, weak consumer spending and lower profits could trigger a downgrade to its risk profile and credit rating should not be seen as another nail in the Tesco coffin.

Tesco's previous ratings
In fact, regular readers will know that Tesco have been here before (Moody’s in April 2012, and May 2009). It also helps to bear in mind that the credit rating represents the credit rating agency's evaluation of qualitative and quantitative information for a company or government; including non-public information obtained by the credit rating agencies analysts. Yesterday’s announcement referred to a long term (i.e. after a year) rating, making it more expensive to borrow, but no issues in the short term.

Why the rating matters to you
However, the mention of  ‘lower profits’ as a cause, means that Tesco is effectively prevented from drawing heavily on current profitability to fund its £1bn revitalising initiative, or indeed any ‘nuclear pricing’ options (see KamBlog).

What Tesco needs to do
Apart from a need to make "targeted" disposals, cutting back capital expenditure and/or shareholder pay-outs as possible options, the ratings threat means that Tesco will be forced to place more emphasis on internal savings….
As you know, for a retailer these can include a combination of cost-price reductions, optimising of credit terms/settlement discount trade-offs, increased trade funding, strict application of deductions and improved service levels…

This means it is perhaps time to re-evaluate your position on each of these elements of your Tesco trading relationship, as a basis for determining your fair share of any help Tesco may require in funding its strategy.

Deriving your bespoke rating of the customer:
Finally, a ratings agency score can be a fairly blunt instrument from a NAM’s point of view. Better for you to derive a bespoke rating via a combination of analysis of the customer’s ROCE, Net Margin, Stockturn and Gearing, overlaid against your terms, trade-funding and service level, in order to establish and demonstrate your fair share of any remedial action…

Not doing so can represent more risk than you need, in the current climate.

Delegating NAM responsibility?

                                                                                                                     pic: BBC
Westfield Stratford shopping centre was displaying huge banners welcoming visitors from all over the world for the Olympics. The Council for Arab-British Understanding (Caabu) said the words were back to front and not joined up as they must be in Arabic.

The rail firm First Capital Connect made the same mistake when it sent posters to 13 stations printed in English and seven other languages intended to warn people not to leave items unattended.

Delegating to machine translation...
Luckily the computer-produced Arabic message was incomprehensible rather than rude but it does illustrate the problem of having to retain responsibility for the downside when delegation goes wrong, especially when the delegator is busy with the next fire…

NAM: Responsibility without Authority
Despite the progress in terms of tools and process, the NAM role still works best by taking full responsibility with very little designated authority...
While others await the completion of the definitive organisation chart and job description that acknowledge the status of Account Management, pro-active NAMs know that the job thrives on loose definition, with all necessary authority coming from a clear Account Strategy, agreed by CEO, and truck driver...

How it works in practice
This ‘job-box without walls’ allows the NAM to move persuasively at all levels, co-ordinating all key functions in both their own organisation and that of the customer.
Having to act without designated authority, the NAM is forced to use persuasion, in turn based on understanding, identifying and satisfying the job needs of each job-holder, and representing all desired output in terms of that colleague’s role optimisation, with unselfish allocation of genuine praise and credit.
This can be very frustrating for some NAMs given that ‘we are all working for the same xx company’, with the loosely defined NAM taking full overall responsibility for all to do with the customer, while colleagues apparently work within the comfort of their own clearly defined 9-5 boxes, especially in these unprecedented times....

Need a way out?
If this all becomes all too much, the frustrated NAM should try to squeeze in evening classes in Production, Finance or Marketing and transfer into one of these ‘safer’ jobs...
Meanwhile, pro-active NAMs who persist 24/7 in the ‘responsibility without authority’ route often find a soul-mate, not within their own company but rather in the role of the buyer, who in practice works in a mirror-image of the NAM role…

So perhaps some evening classes in buying might help?   

Tesco's nuclear price option, if all else fails...

How to prepare for the inevitable?

No one, including Tesco, can say exactly what will happen, but it would be reckless of any stakeholder not to attempt to shorten the odds by eliminating  or factoring in some of the ‘obvious’ variables in the meantime…

The company patently has deeper pockets and greater scale-advantages than other players, but any positive momentum has to be sustainable in the long term, in order to avoid wasting gains made here and abroad over the past 20 years.

1. Share-price maintenance: As you know, Tesco’s share price has still not budged since its 20% drop following the January profit warning.  Any share price improvement will still be driven by ROCE performance, in turn driven by Net Profit on Sales, and Capital Turn, so these ratios cannot be allowed to be diluted, even in the short term i.e. this will require a combination of cost-price reductions, optimising of credit terms/settlement discount trade-offs, increased trade funding, strict application of deductions and improved service levels…

2. Deep-cut pricing: in order to sustain its current marketing approach aimed at retrieving lapsed shoppers, any price changes have to be credible and sustainable – cosmetic  cutting of a handful of KVIs will be insufficient. The ‘typical ‘shopping basket will obviously have to be cut sufficiently to attract the attention of a savvy shopper, not just the media. However, to maintain any shopper ‘regains’ the company will have to make across-the-board cuts permanent and sustainable, in order to avoid unnecessary de-stabilising of strategies currently in place.

3. Brand–Own label balance: this may be allowed to shift a little from its current 50/50 to perhaps 45/55 in acknowledgement of not only the credibility of the Tesco brand, but also the own-label pull of unprecedented market-change. It will not be allowed or encouraged  to move to levels of 65/35, if the company has learned anything from its last 30 years in the UK market…

4. UK/Rest-of-world balance: The UK as a feeder for o/seas development? NB. Like any globally-ambitious retailer, Tesco needs the security and cashflow of home market dominance in order to drive rest-of-world growth.

5. Market share: Here Tesco has three options, recovery of lost share, stop the current loss of share, i.e. maintain market share at current level, or allow market share to drift down to 25%, thereby removing it from the ‘kicking–post’ role in terms of being a political scapegoat, and a target for grievances of special interest groups. Of these, we believe the more likely will be the ‘maintain current share’ option, then using internal efficiencies to drive profit improvement...

6. Food/non-food balance: who knows, but the fact remains that Tesco's approach to non-foods reflects many of the advantages of being able to apply fmcg food principles to categories that were hitherto regarded as requiring ‘special ‘ treatment  because of tradition routing to consumer.

7. Online/ traditional retailing: Any marketing instinct would cause Tesco to follow natural development of a market, online being no exception…


Supplier action:

In the meantime, suppliers need to be clear about their own limits in terms of willingness to fund what happens. Suppliers also need to take advantage of Tesco’s temporary ‘weakness’ by insisting on a fair-share, pro rata  stance in return for any help given.

Use of a Buying Mix analysis will help in assessing Tesco’s pulling power vs. alternatives available (JS, Asda, Morrisons, Waitrose, the Co-op and ‘all others’ ) based on the retailing 8P marketing mix, all seen from the point-of-view of lapsed customers. It is also important that Tesco and its suppliers do not forget the current customers, those most vulnerable to any neglect in terms of being susceptible to the appeal of the opposition….

Developing an ‘obvious‘ context using the above factors, but fine-tuned to their specific categories, suppliers (and retail competitors) should then devote the remaining weeks/months to monitoring and modifying  the above factors/variables to incorporate latest data, before retiring to the fall-out shelter…

Moving away without giving up?

Coping with the Olympics via a pop-up shop has been an escape route to new business for bespoke tailors, Apsley of Pall Mall who have taken over suites at the Edinburgh Caledonian Hilton to attract new customers to the world of bespoke tailoring (makers of a top-end suit at £70k and a more moderate range at £900/suit, clients include  Fulham and West Ham football clubs).

The 120-year-old firm’s fitting rooms are located behind the Olympic beach volleyball security cordons at Horse Guards, and it being no contest, they have sent their four tailors to Scotland.

Running the numbers: At 20 customers /day for August, at £900/suit, realising £360k, less costs, should suit nicely, thank you…and not counting customer lifetime value..

Thanks to Anne Johnstone for the link