Use of Fixed Charge Cover to spot a customer going bust?

Given the financial turmoil of the past three years resulting in further retail casualties such as Game Group, and a number of others on the brink, it is obvious that the ‘usual ratios’ such as ROCE, Net Margin, Stockturn and Gearing may be insufficient in terms of providing early warnings of trouble for suppliers.

What makes a retailer vulnerable?
A recent article in Moneyweek.com flags up the fact that if a retailer leases rather than owns its shops, it is faced with regular fixed charges for rent that must be paid, irrespective of the level of sales and profits. Moreover, if a retailer also has fairly high gearing, the interest payments represent an additional fixed cost on the business.

These Fixed Charges are ‘Lease costs’ and ‘Interest on borrowing’ and need to be compared with the ‘available Operating Profit’ i.e. the Operating profit less Fixed charges.   (these can be found on the P&L ('Interest paid' and 'Operating Profit') and early in the Notes to the Accounts ('Lease expense'), after the Balance Sheet
(NB when you find the figures, check them with your finance colleagues). 

In other words, the Fixed Charge Cover (FCC) indicates the ability of a company to pay its Fixed Charges, irrespective of sales and profit performance. Failure to pay can result in liquidation.

The following analysis compares the ‘big four’ multiples in order to illustrate the calculation in practice.

Given that these are the most financially healthy retailers in the UK, other retailers could be vulnerable..

Some of the differences are interesting in that, for instance Morrisons, because it owns most of its shops, and has relatively little borrowing, combined with a good net margin, means that with an FCC of 13.3, Fixed Charge Payments are no burden to the company. However, in the case of Tesco and Sainsburys at 2.9 and 2.2 respectively, FCC is obviously more of an issue.....
Application to other retailers?

However, the real value of the ratio is in its application to most medium and smaller retailers that are running short of cash and are finding that Fixed Charge Payments are pushing them to the edge….

As in all cases of pending liquidation, those creditors that are first to spot the danger, can have the advantage of withdrawing their credit before the liquidator is appointed.
Ignoring the Fixed Charge Cover indicator?

If you still feel that all such matters are the responsibility of the Finance Department, remind yourself that if a customer goes bust owing you £150k, and your pre-tax net profit is 5%, you will need incremental sales of £3m to recover…

In which case, perhaps the application of Fixed Charge Cover analysis to your customers’ latest Annual Reports will help…?

Google's self-driving car for the high-focus NAM?

For those who need high-intensity preparation and in-depth post-rationalisation of encounters with the buyer, perhaps it is time to consider Google’s computer-controlled car as a must-have upgrade?

In the video, Google's self-driving car takes Steve Mahan, who is legally blind, to a Californian Taco Bell to pick up a snack.

Google released the video to celebrate that it has safely completed 200,000 miles of computer-lead driving.

The video shows Mahan sitting in the driver's seat as the car steers itself, using radar and lasers to make sure the road is clear. The car takes him through the drive-through of Taco Bell, then to the dry cleaners, a logical destination, given the trip’s continuous sudden-shock potential…

According to Google, the passenger in a Google car can take control in three ways: via a brake pedal on the passenger side that can stop the vehicle, via an emergency stop button on the centre console that can be reached by anyone in the vehicle, and by means of the laptop the Google representative is seen holding. In all three cases, the car can be stopped, but not remotely controlled except by the driver's steering wheel, he said. No mention was made of the need to reboot fast if the car ‘crashes’ in the fast lane..

And if all else fails, a final option can be a pit-stop at the dry cleaners…

For a comprehensive selection of Google April 1^st might-have-beens...

Choose your airline carefully….

Those NAMs tempted to use a value-carrier to escape the High Street doom and gloom are advised to check the airlines maintenance records before switching suppliers…

A pilot for a Chinese carrier requested permission and landed at Frankfurt for an unscheduled refuelling stop. The reason became soon apparent to the ground crew: The Number 3 engine had been shutdown previously because of excessive vibration, and because it didn't look too good. It had apparently been no problem for the tough guys on the ground back in China: as they took some sturdy straps and wrapped them around two of the fan blades and the structures behind, thus stopping any unwanted wind-milling (engine spinning by itself due to airflow passing thru the blades during flight) and associated uncomfortable vibration caused by the sub optimal fan.

Note that the straps are seat-belts ....how resourceful!  After making the "repairs", off they went into the wild blue yonder with another revenue-making flight on only three engines!  With the increased fuel consumption, they got a bit low on fuel, and just set it down at the closest airport (Frankfurt) for a quick refill.

That's when the problems started: The Germans, who are kind of picky about this stuff, inspected the malfunctioning engine and immediately grounded the aircraft. (Besides the seat-belts, notice the appalling condition of the fan blades.)  The airline operator had to send a chunk of money to get the first engine replaced (took about 10 days).  The repair contractor decided to do some impromptu inspection work on the other engines, none of which looked all that great either.  The result: a total of 3 engines were eventually changed on this plane before it was permitted to fly again.

And to think we were all worried about toys coloured with lead paint!

Why not have a stay-at-home weekend, from the NamNews Team!

The Future of the British High Street: Voice of Russia Radio (formerly Radio Moscow)

This is a recording of a radio discussion that will be broadcast next week involving the British Retail Consortium, The New Economics Foundation and NamNews, covering key issues and predictions affecting future viability of the High Street, from the perspective of key stakeholders.

Topics include:
- Need for commercial viability
- Role of mults, charity shops, & suppliers
- Domestic-retail balance
- Legal & Rating issues
- Banks as landlords
- Predictions ref. High St, out-of-town and online shares

FYI, Voice of Russia Radio is apparently No. 3 in the world to the BBC and Voice of America.
NB. For a priority copy of the new NamNews High Street Survival Recipe, contact bmoore@namnews.com

Pop-up shops: the ultimate in suck-it-and-see research?

Pop-up retail originated with fashion designers seeking to showcase new clothing lines. However with consumer spending deteriorating and as suppliers seek to cut the costs of product launches, pop-ups have become an interesting alternative route-to-consumer.

Breakthrough research?

As you know if a supplier’s brainstorming session results in a ‘great idea’, it can take nine months to secure a space on shelf

For a retailer, a ‘great idea’ can be an early morning presentation by a NAM, and with proper co-ordination the product can be on a shelf by noon.  By 1700 on the same day, the retailer can be in a position to double the order or delist the product…!

An instant test-market opportunity for suppliers

An (obvious) exaggeration, but pop-up shops can operate within the same model and time-frame, and can represent a real market-test opportunity for pro-active suppliers.

For those NAMs that get out occasionally, the usage by well-known brands is obvious, with GAP even kicking off a 60's style tour using a school bus as a mobile pop up store in the US.

With empty shops in the high street providing instant accommodation, a recent article lists some useful pros and cons for landlords and retailers

Living with the time-frame 

For suppliers that can operate in limited time-frames, a typical pop-up store can operate for as little as two days up to a period of four to six weeks and during this period the supplier can test-market a new product or brand and thus get first-hand feedback from customers, with an added plus of lower marketing costs compared with TV.

Meanwhile we await the emergence of a pop-up NAM as real evidence of the fact that pop-up shops are becoming a permanent part of the retail landscape…

Same-price pack-size shrinkage, a con or what?

Given the status of the brands and companies involved, it is obvious that the letter of the law is being adhered to, in that weights and measures are all accurately displayed on the pack. It is not even about the spirit of the law, in that it not the job of the legislature to maintain consumer trust in a brand. It is not about economics in that most research will prove that prices of ingredients, energy and labour have consistently risen faster than improvements in NAMs' ability to negotiate trade price increases of equivalent value…

'Everyone doing it'?

Moreover, it is not about the fact that 'everyone is doing it', in that the degree of collusion required to accurately preserve market/category equilibrium would be in clear breach of the law.

It is not even a new phenomenon, given that many of us cherish memories of our first bar of Cadbury’s Milk Flake, when it seemed so large one did not even object to sharing it with a younger brother..

Perception is the problem

No, pack size shrinkage is really about perception, the fact that a brand that has worked so hard and so long on convincing me that their combination of Product, Price, Presentation and Place is better than the competition in terms of value for money, suddenly, without consultation, destabilises that trust by allowing me to conclude that I am no longer getting what I thought it said on the tin… Moreover, if the brand’s marketing mix previously offered only a marginal advantage over the competitor’s offering, then the competitor suddenly becomes a serious contender for my attentions and even loyalty, at least until the next price rise.....

We are all savvy consumers
It is especially an insult to my intelligence as a savvy consumer, a person who has survived by learning never again to outsource product and service decision-making to marketers and retailers, and has set demonstrable value-for-money as a prerequisite for any purchasing decision.

What to do about it?

In fact, all the clues are available in the notes above:

If a brand makes a fundamental change in the Marketing Mix, it destabilises the market/category’s status quo, and needs to ‘re-sell’ me on its advantages over available alternatives, (via an up-to-date Buying Mix Analysis). 
I am not interested in boring stuff about ingredient, energy and labour cost increases, the media are full of it, in between the bits about political and financial corruption. 
I don’t want to know about those nasty retailers unfairly refusing to allow adequate and logical price increases.

I simply want assurance (and increasingly, proof) that the brand’s combination of Product, Price, Presentation and Place is so overwhelming that I would not even dream of considering alternatives…

Seemple, uh?       (Seemple = Shorthand for 'seems simple' ; Uh? = please read again )

Co-op profitability has a cost

For many years the Co-op was run as a ‘breakeven’ organisation in strict application of its shared-profits culture.

As anyone in mainstream business will appreciate, in order to result in breakeven, it is wiser to aim at say 5% net profit, and the result will probably be 0% or perhaps even 0.5% profit.

Reality of 'breaking even'

Aiming for breakeven in business can be a way of ensuring a loss-making year…

This breakeven approach and its consequential loss-making caused the failure of individual societies, resulting in them being absorbed into healthier parts of the movement. However, the Co-op still remained a confusing and inefficient trade partner for leading–edge suppliers, resulting in minimal levels of support, with most discretionary funds going to major customers that ran their businesses in a more traditional manner.

The penny drops…

Several years ago the Co-op apparently began to embrace the idea of making a profit, and even began to refer to ROCE and other KPIs in their annual reports.

All very encouraging for suppliers as the Co-op began to produce acceptable returns, encouraging increased investment of trade funding as a way of producing a viable alternative to the Big Four.

Testing the change in philosophy

The real test of this change in philosophy required the global financial crisis (a challenge to capitalism everywhere) to cause the Co-op to embrace the other side of the coin, cost-cutting and redundancies.

Latest reports indicate that the Co-op Group is preparing to further slash its food division’s workforce, as it seeks to cut costs amid tough trading at its grocery operation The job cuts in the food property team are part of its Unity Programme. This is the Co-op’s project to deliver a more co-ordinated strategy and efficiencies across over 4,800 retail trading outlets, including pharmacy, banking and funeral care.

The need for persistence

Despite the social cost, the Co-op needs to continue with this strategy, not only to maintain its profitability, but to demonstrate to its trading partners its determination to justify a level of partnership that compares with that currently given to the Big Four.

Above all, realistic suppliers need to support and cooperate with the Co-op, in this, the completion of their transition to ‘mainstream’ retailing…

Working out in the early hours….

If you find that managing the increasing pressures of the 9-5 NAM Agenda leaves little workout time to increase/decrease adrenaline levels, why not sacrifice sleep-time (+ four hours max means one is constantly wired, with less effort required to wind down/up….) join the NamNews Team and find a 24/7 gym?

NAMs, KAMs, Night owls, insomniacs, shift workers and other denizens of the dark are finding less need to fit their workout time into the nine-to-five world of ‘normal’ folk..

Increased availability

More gyms are remaining open round the clock, experts say, spurred by advances in surveillance and security technology, clients' ever more fluid work habits and a generation of multi-tasking consumers.

"At 6:00 a.m. you get the professionals going to work. Late morning you see a lot of stay-at-home moms. 

Extend your network

Overnight I tend to see more creative types," she said. "More piercings, more tattoos. I have met interesting people at three or four in the morning."

Go on, have a proper 24/7 weekend, from the NamNews Team!