Tesco Expected To Post Strong Annual Results And Address Asda Price War Challenge

Tesco is set to reveal strong sales and profit figures when it releases its annual results on Thursday, with investors keen to hear how the UK’s leading grocer plans to respond to Asda’s drive to slash prices to become 5% to 10% cheaper than its rivals.

Last month, Asda’s Chairman Allan Leighton said that the business was prepared to take a significant hit to its profit to finance a shift to a new low ‘Asda Price’ by the end of 2026 in a bid to recover lost market share. The statement led to shares in Tesco, Sainsbury’s and M&S tumbling on fears of a major supermarket price war.

However, most analysts think that scenario is unlikely, noting the increasing cost pressures retailers and their suppliers face. Recent industry data from Kantar shows that grocery price inflation in the UK rose slightly to 3.5% last month, with shoppers turning to promotions to save money.

Market watchers have also questioned whether Asda has the financial firepower for a sustained price war, given that its majority owner, private equity group TDR Capital, is not putting additional equity into the business.

Meanwhile, Tesco and Sainsbury’s have stronger balance sheets than Asda.

Tesco’s results “will be an important staging post to test the mood music of the market leader on such matters, we sense a mature, resolute and professional approach will ensue,” said renowned Shore Capital analyst Clive Black.

Analysts at Bernstein looked at over 500 own-label products that Tesco price matches with Aldi and compared them with Asda. “Tesco and Aldi do not massively need to react. They are winning on price perception,” it found.

Tesco has guided for an annual retail adjusted operating profit of around £2.9bn, up from £2.76bn last year, supported by robust sales growth in its core business.

Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “Growth in the UK and Europe helped to offset declines in its wholesale business, Booker. It’s a competitive space, but its improving proposition saw Tesco record its highest market share since 2016. Investors will be keen to see this trend continue when it reports full-year results.”

Analysts expect Tesco to flag further profit growth in next 12 months despite costs (higher national insurance contributions, national minimum wage, new packaging levy.

NamNews Implications:

• The added uncertainties of Trump tariffs…
• …gives retailers the ’excuse’ to wait and see outcomes.
• i.e. postpone any plunge into a UK price war, if intended.
• Besides, whilst Asda management may have permission to make threats…
• …this may not include the funding of a prolonged price war.
• Meanwhile, retailers with strong balance sheets may now want to preserve their ‘wealth’ following Trump’s announcements.
• This says a lot: “Tesco and Aldi do not massively need to react. They are winning on price perception”.