Wednesday, 5 March 2025

Growth Accelerates At Discounters And Market Leaders But Morrisons And Asda Continue To Struggle

 Kantar: take-home sales UK’s Mults up 3.6% (4 weeks to 23-2-2025, weaker than the 4.3% of the previous month), promos kept price inflation at 3.3%.

Items bought on offer = 27.6% of sales, up 0.3 percentage points vs 2024. Premium own-label up 13.3% this month.

In the 12 weeks to 23 Feb, Ocado was the fastest-growing retailer for the 10th consecutive month, spending up by 9.6% at 1.9% market share.

M&S grocery sales up 12.2% in bricks & mortar stores.

Aldi had 377,000 more shoppers, a 10.3% share, sales up 4.9%, highest since Jan 2024.

Lidl market share up to 7.3%, sales up 8.1% vs 2024.

Morrisons’ share down to 8.6%, store sales flat vs 2024.

Asda sales down 5.0%.

Five years since first Covid-19 UK lockdown in the UK, Kantar outlined how consumers’ grocery habits have evolved since then.

Sally Ball, Kantar head of retail: “Back in 2020, we didn’t know just how big an impact the Covid-19 pandemic would have on our lives, but five years on we can get a picture of its lingering effects on consumers.

"We haven’t gone back to old patterns and shopping trips remain below pre-pandemic times. Households made one less visit to the supermarket in February 2025 than in 2020, while online shopping appears to have stuck, taking a 12.3% market share this month versus 8.6% in February 2020.

“...consumers have moved to simpler eating habits (convenience), taking less time to prepare meals, and prep time in the evening, for example, has declined from almost 34 minutes in 2020 to 31 minutes in 2024.”

Kantar consumption data:
People now using fewer different ingredients when making food (lunch and evening). Consumers snacking less often, dropping over 330m occasions in 2024 versus 2020.

Ball added: “Of course, it’s hard to untangle the cost of living crisis from any post-Covid analysis, and the other big headline of the past few years has been consumers’ hunt for value. You might think that people would shop around more to find the best deals but in fact, that’s not the case.

"Households visited just under five different grocers this month, the lowest level in February since 2021. The growth of supermarket loyalty schemes is partly behind this as shoppers use them to unlock exclusive discounts.”

NamNews Implications:
  • The key standout has to be the growing shares of Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Aldi and Lidl…
  • …at the expense of Asda and Morrisons.
  • Causing us to wonder if there is any way back for Asda and Morrisons?
  • The other issue has to be the unprecedented impact of Lockdown on businesses everywhere…
  • Resulting in the dilution of consumer belief in ‘everything’.
  • Causing consumers to view with suspicion the size of the brand premium when private label ‘substitutes’ were found not to be as much of a compromise as anticipated.
  • Begging the question: How much will brands have to spend to win back loyalty?
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