If the recession is about absorbing slack or excess that has built up in the system over the past 15 years, then this will have to be absorbed before 'green shoots' will be close enough to the surface to be able to emerge into the new world…hence the probablility of a three year 'flat' period first.
This means that the cake is now smaller, 'fair share' will be smaller, and any increase will be at the expense of much healthier competition remaining to serve an increasingly savvy consumer.
In practice, companies are currently experiencing a change in demand within their product portfolios as consumers trade down to middle market offerings, but with upmarket tastes.
Long term, the real issue is whether the consumer will revert to pre-recession behaviour in the 'upturn', but given the financial , economic and political compromises resulting in the current crisis, holding one's breath simply adds an additional, unneeded pressure…
Best way forward is to work in the current 'normal' environment, *re-evaluate everything (assume you are launching a totally new product, in a new market, to new customers and consumers via a new company) and leave pursuit of the 'upturn' to others…
*See Kamshop for the tools!
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