Better Month For Brands; Lidl Close To Overtaking Morrisons And Tesco Makes Gains

Worldpanel by Numerator data shows take-home sales at leading UK grocers up 4.0% over four weeks to 10th August, with price inflation down from 5.2% to 5.0%.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel: “What people pay for their supermarket shopping often impacts their spending across other parts of the high street too, including their eating and drinking habits out of the home. Casual and fast service restaurants especially have seen a decline in visitors over the summer, with trips falling by 6% during the three months to mid-July 2025 vs last year. The outliers in this are coffee shops, which have bucked the trend.”

Sales of branded grocery items grew by 6.1% this month, putting them ahead of own-label alternatives, which were up by 4.1% – the largest gap in favour of brands since March 2024. Branded sales now makes up 46.4% of all grocery spending but are particularly dominant in personal care, confectionery, hot drinks and soft drinks, where they account for more than 75% of money through the tills.

While a far smaller part of the market, premium own-label is also continuing to perform well, with sales rising by 11.5% during this period.

Looking at the performance of the leading grocers, Lidl and Ocado were tied for top spot as the fastest-growing grocers over the 12 weeks to 10th August, with sales at both retailers up by 10.7% compared to the same period last year.

Lidl’s share of the market increased by 0.5 percentage points to 8.3%, keeping it just behind Morrisons, which now controls 8.4% of the market after seeing sales growth of only 0.9%. Earlier this month, it was reported that Lidl is now the UK’s fifth-biggest supermarket in terms of food and drink sales, having overtaken Morrisons in July.

Tesco achieved its largest monthly share gain since December 2024, with its hold of the market increasing by 0.8 percentage points to 28.4% after delivering sales growth of 7.4%.

Spending through the tills at Sainsbury’s was up 5.2% on last year, taking its portion of the market to 15.0%. Sales at Aldi were 4.8% higher, giving it a 10.8% share.

Asda’s sales slipped 2.6%, but this was a slight improvement on the 3.0% fall last month, suggesting its turnaround strategy could be yielding results.

It was also another disappointing month for convenience specialist Co-op, with its share falling to 5.4% after a 3.2% decline in sales.

NamNews Implications:

• Patently, there is money for premium, brand or own label, rain or shine…
• But the standout has to be dependence on inflation to maintain the ‘appearance’ of growth.
• (with obvious exceptions…)
• Meanwhile, the combined market shares of Aldi & Lidl at 19.1% has to be of concern to rivals and suppliers alike.
• And Tesco and Sainsbury’s continue to grow their share at the expense of Morrisons…
• …and an Asda racing against the clock.

hashtag

Crisis Deepens For Independent Retailers With Nearly Half Seeing Sales Fall

New data highlights that the high street crisis has deepened significantly, with nearly half of independent retailers reporting that their sales have fallen compared to last year.

The figures, released by the British Independent Retailers Association (Bira), show that 46% of businesses suffered worse second-quarter trading in 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, as consumers reined in their spending due to stretched household budgets.

The Heartbeat survey, conducted over two weeks from July to August, gathered responses from Bira Group members and the Association of Cycle Traders (ACT). While 45% of respondents said Q2 was much or somewhat better than Q1, this improvement came against the backdrop of Q1 traditionally including the January sales period, with Q2 typically representing quieter trading months.

More concerning, only 13.8% reported Q2 was better than Q2 last year, highlighting year-on-year challenges.

Retailers cited squeezed household finances as a primary concern, with one respondent noting: “Money appears to be tight for households; everyday costs leave households with very little to play with for extra luxuries.”

Another observed that “good weather was keeping people out of the high street.”

When asked about government priorities for the autumn statement, 47% of respondents identified business rates reform as the most critical issue requiring attention. Other priorities included minimising national minimum wage increases, addressing cybercrime, and increasing government spending on policing.

One retailer warned: “The threat of additional tax rises and the outcome of the budget in the autumn may cause further anxiety among consumers and put pressure on sales in the crucial Christmas period.”

Andrew Goodacre, CEO of Bira, commented: “These findings paint a concerning picture of the challenges facing Britain’s independent retailers. With household budgets under pressure and business confidence fragile, our members are facing a perfect storm of rising costs and uncertain consumer demand.

“The government must recognise that independent retailers are the backbone of our high streets and take decisive action to reduce the amount retailers actually pay for business rates, especially as next year many thousands will pay more. Without this support, we risk losing the diverse, vibrant retail landscape that makes our communities special.”

NamNews Implications:

• Given the government’s focus on filling ‘black holes’…
• …breath-holding re a fundamental reform of business rates in the Autumn Budget might not be advisable.
• In fact, pragmatists can benefit more from constant monitoring of their exposure to key retailers...
• i.e. Divide the average amount of credit outstanding by your net margin on that retailer and multiply by 100...
• ...to calculate the incremental sales required should the retailer go bust.

Iceland Foods To Reward Customers Who Report Shoplifters

Amid the significant rise in shoplifting across the UK, Iceland Foods has announced that customers who spot thieves in its stores will be eligible for a reward via its Bonus Card loyalty scheme.

The frozen food chain is encouraging shoppers to alert staff if they see anyone shoplifting in the aisles. In doing so, they will be eligible for a £1 reward, which will be credited to their Bonus Card and available to spend immediately.

“The scourge of shoplifting on our high streets continues to plague the UK, and the problem is only worsening, with criminal activity spreading across, not just big cities, but our market towns and villages too,” said Richard Walker, executive chairman of Iceland Foods.

“In order to combat any activity in Iceland stores, we’re encouraging our loyal customers to help sound the alarm, and if they do help to catch a shoplifter, we’ll top up their Bonus Card to spend in store.”

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed last month that the number of shoplifting incidents rose 20% to 530,643 during the year to the end of March, marking the highest number since records began in 2003.

NamNews Implications:

• No one doubts the havoc caused by shoplifting.
• But this initiative takes Iceland into dangerously sensitive legal territory
• i.e. suppose a loyal shopper overreacts and actually challenges a thief?
• i.e. what if a thief notices the shopper telling staff, and retaliates outside the store?
• For those in any doubt, shoplifters are currently threatening to attack store staff with alcohol bottles!
• Hence why some mults are warning staff to ignore shoplifters…

M&S Surpasses Food & Drink Market Share Of Co-op

M&S has become the seventh-biggest retailer of food and drink products in the UK after overtaking Co-op.

According to unpublished Worldpanel data seen by trade publication The Grocer, M&S’s food and drink market share was 5.1% over the 52 weeks to 13 July, compared with Co-op’s 4.7%. In the previous 52-week period, Co-op had a higher share of 4.9% compared to M&S’s 4.7%.

The report noted that M&S’s food and drink sales have grown by 11.5% year-on-year, while Co-op’s were unchanged.

The Grocer’s report noted that the food and drink market share data, which is distributed privately to retailers, includes sales of fresh, chilled and ambient groceries but not alcohol, household, toiletries or healthcare. It is different to the grocery market share data published monthly by Worldpanel – formerly Kantar – which relates to all expenditure through store tills (excl. petrol and in-store concessions).

The monthly published data also do not include market share figures for M&S, as it falls outside the research group’s definition of a grocer due to its clothing & home business.

Despite a recent cyberattack impacting its operations, M&S has also increased its lead over Waitrose in food and drink sales. The report stated that Waitrose’s share was 4.5% in the 52 weeks to 13 July, meaning M&S’s lead has grown from 0.3 percentage points to 0.6 percentage points over the last year.

Co-op told The Grocer that it regards Worldpanel’s take-home methodology as an incomplete gauge of its performance, arguing it ignores a large chunk of its sales as a convenience retailer.

A Co-op spokesperson is quoted as saying: “We are proud to be the leading UK convenience retailer, not a supermarket, with a market share 12.7%, as reported by Circana, who measure all convenience categories, whilst Kantar [Worldpanel] excludes circa 30% of our sales, including many food and drink categories such as food to go, confectionery and soft drinks.

“We continue to grow ahead of the convenience market and also hold nearly 25% of the UK quick commerce market.”

A Worldpanel spokesperson commented: “We do not publish retailer market share data for select categories. Our grocery market share release provides a full view of grocers’ performance, including all expenditure through store tills except petrol and in-store concessions.”

Earlier this month, the same food and drink data put Lidl ahead of Morrisons for the first time.

NamNews Implications:

• As always, market share ranking, however cut… 
• …will have an impact that is psychological and will differ by audience.
• i.e. uplifting for M&S….
• …troubling for Co-op.
• Meanwhile, food & drinks markets are in a state of flux...
• ...wherever you stand.

Asda’s New Supplier Portal Plagued By Problems

Following reports this week that Asda is close to completing its £1bn Project Future IT separation from Walmart, it has now been revealed that food and drink manufacturers are complaining about problems with the supermarket’s new supplier portal.

According to trade publication The Grocer, Asda is in the process of speaking to groups of suppliers to try to tackle issues with the new system, with one supplier describing the situation as “an utter mess”.

The report stated that major problems have been reported with Asda’s transition to its new ADR system, which is used by suppliers for forecasting, sales data, and stock control issues. This system has been introduced to replace Walmart’s Retail Link system.

Former Asda buyer Mervyn Jones, who runs a consultancy supporting companies on how to use new systems, said that the transition from a system buyers knew “inside out” to Asda’s new system was beset with problems.

“ADR is so bad I don’t know where to start with it,” Jones posted on LinkedIn. “I have a number of contacts within Asda. Some of them are telling me not to use Retail Link anymore and to move completely across to ADR. ADR, however, says to use Retail Link for historical data.

“Other contacts in Asda say to continue using Retail Link for forecasting and that ADR’s data is incomplete. It’s a mess. A complete and utter mess, and the training Asda is offering online is not up to scratch.”

Another source quoted by The Grocer said: “Moving to a new system at the same time as Asda is going through other major changes as a business was always a recipe for complexity.

Suppliers rely on these systems for key information on stock movements, waste and stock control, and historically, Asda’s system has been top of the tree.

“That’s not the case anymore, and suppliers are not getting the same speed of information. Data on products they use to get at the start of the day is now coming much later.

“To Asda’s credit, they are being transparent about these problems and talking to suppliers to try to tackle these issues, but at the moment, it is causing a lot of issues.”

The report noted that Asda was engaging with suppliers as they transitioned from Retail Link to the new supplier portal.

A company source told The Grocer that Asda had expected a “period of adjustment” and was actively working with suppliers to ensure they were supported throughout this period, including offering training and guidance materials.

NamNews Implications:

• Already in a race against the clock.
• Asda could have done without ‘teething troubles’ associated with a £1bn IT conversion project..
• At a time when willing suppliers are trying hard to lend support to a key retail player…
• Whose rival retailers present increasingly appealing trade investment opportunities..
• These unprecedented times tick on remorselessly…
• ...fast leaving Asda with the option of going for broke, regardless.

Bank Of England Expects Food Inflation To Hit 5.5% This Year

After cutting interest rates yesterday, the Bank of England warned that climbing food prices will cause inflation to surge even higher in 2025.Economists at the Bank blamed rising food prices on several factors, including changes to packaging regulations and increased labour costs, as a higher proportion of workers in the retail sector are paid the national living wage, which the Chancellor Rachel Reeves increased by 6.7% in April.

They also blamed higher employment taxes announced in the Autumn Budget, saying: “Furthermore, overall labour costs of supermarkets are likely to have been disproportionately affected by the lower threshold at which employers start paying NICs… these material increases in labour costs are likely to have pushed up food prices.”

Responding to the Bank of England’s comments, Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive at the British Retail Consortium, said: “The Bank of England report outlines how the last Budget continues to push up food prices.

Government policy will add £7bn to retailer costs this year, from higher employment costs to the introduction of a new packaging tax. Food prices have already been climbing steadily, and the BRC has warned this is only the beginning, food inflation means poorer families being hit the hardest by the Treasury’s decisions.

“While retailers are doing everything they can to shield their customers from rising prices, their ability to absorb further costs is extremely limited. If government goes ahead with its planned higher business rates threshold for 4,000 larger stores – including many supermarkets – then it will be ordinary households who suffer the most.”

Food and Drink Federation (FDF) Chief Executive, Karen Betts, added: “Food and drink inflation is rising noticeably again and currently this shows no signs of easing.

Global energy and commodity prices are rising once more, and this comes on top of new taxes and regulatory costs, like higher employer National Insurance Contributions and this year’s new packaging tax.

Food and drink manufacturers try to absorb as many of these costs as possible to protect shoppers, but the fact is that making food and drink in the UK is more and more expensive to do.

“It’s critical that government takes decisive action to cut red tape and promote growth and investment across the food and drink sector, including ensuring there are no further cost increases to businesses in our sector in the autumn Budget.”

NamNews Implications:

• Meanwhile, consumers are driven by perceived inflation…
• …especially for food.
• (and more government-caused cost increases in the pipeline)
• A perception that it is more than the official stats.
• Anyone in real doubt, try doing the household shopping, alone for a few months…
• ...and study the actions of fellow shoppers.
• Anticipate increased switching to own-label equivalents and discounters.

Asda Launching New Customer Insight Platform That Supports Evolution Of E-Commerce Category Management

Asda is preparing to launch a new customer insight and collaboration platform, created in partnership with eStoreBrands, an e-commerce data analytics specialist.

According to trade publication Retail Week, Asda Xpert will launch next week with the aim of helping the supermarket group and its suppliers “understand and more effectively meet the needs of its online shoppers”.

A source is quoted as saying that the new platform will provide brands with “advanced data-driven insights, enabling them to optimise product performance, track market trends, and make smarter category decisions for Asda.com”.

The new platform will also “integrate digital shelf analytics and real-time performance data” in order to help “suppliers drive mutual category growth and improve decision-making”.

It is claimed that Asda Xpert will be a major step forward in the “evolution of e-commerce category management” and will provide brands with the tools they need to “maximise growth, optimise strategies, and better serve customers in an increasingly competitive online retail space”.

Barney Burgess, Asda’s VP of Online, told Retail Week: “We’re really excited about this new partnership between Asda and eStoreBrands. Leveraging an e-category management approach, Asda Xpert will enable brands to identify new insights from our data, driving more informed actions which will accelerate growth for the brands as well as Asda.com”.

eStoreBrands’ VP of product strategy, Francis Nicholas, added: “Having spent years working for brands like P&G and Nomad Foods, I know first-hand how valuable this kind of insight is.

When working with retailer buying, category, and ecommerce teams, this was the type of solution which was missing. Partnering with Asda on Asda Xpert is incredibly exciting, and we look forward to supporting brands in making data-led decisions that benefit both suppliers and Asda.”

NamNews Implications:

• Asda are patently pressing all the right buttons.
• And innovating with leading-edge tools.
• The key issue remains that of sufficient EBITDA improvement…
• …fast enough to beat the clock.
• Fingers crossed.

Sainsbury’s Shakes Up Management Team

Sainsbury’s has made new appointments and reshuffled its existing leadership team to support the delivery of the group’s ‘Next Level’ strategy.

Tracey Clements will join the retailer at the beginning of September in the role of Chief Retail, Logistics and Supply Officer. The newly created position unifies Sainsbury’s Retail, Digital, Customer Experience, Supply Chain and Logistics activities under a single leadership.

Clements’ past experience includes 17 years with Tesco, where she held a number of leadership roles, including Store Director, Managing Director of Tesco Express, and CEO of One Stop. She then became Chief Operating Officer for Boots UK & Ireland, and most recently, was Senior VP of Mobility and Convenience Europe at petrol forecourt operator BP.

Meanwhile, accountability for Technology at Sainsbury’s is moving to Mark Given following the recent departure of its Chief Retail and Technology Officer, Clodagh Moriarty, to homewares chain Dunelm.

Given will become Chief Technology, Marketing and Data Officer from 1st September, supporting Sainsbury’s drive to utilise technology and AI in delivering “outstanding customer experience, leveraging the power of data and insight and unlocking future opportunities at scale.”

Rob Barnes will join Sainsbury’s in early October as Chief Technology Officer, reporting to Given. Barnes left Asda in April, having supported the group’s ‘Project Future’ IT separation from its previous owner, Walmart.

Sainsbury’s also confirmed that Rhian Bartlett will become its Chief Commercial and Sustainability Officer in an expanded role, bringing together the group’s commercial and sustainability agendas under a single leadership. The retailer stated that by aligning commercial and sustainability leadership, it was “embedding sustainability at the heart of commercial decision making – ensuring both areas come together to support long-term value creation and environmental leadership.”

Meanwhile, Graham Biggart has been appointed Managing Director for Argos and Chief Strategy Officer. The move will see the chain’s retail and transformation teams report directly into Biggart, enabling an “even sharper focus on delivering the More Argos, more often transformation plan and accelerating Argos’ growth”.

Biggart will continue to hold accountability for shaping the group’s future strategy, whilst his prior responsibilities for Sainsbury’s supply chain and logistics will transition to Clements to align more closely with its retail operations and customer experience.

“I’m delighted to welcome Tracey to our Operating Board. Her breadth of experience, energy and customer-first mindset make her an outstanding addition to our leadership team, and I’m confident she will play a pivotal role in accelerating our plan and shaping the next chapter of our Sainsbury’s business,” commented Chief Executive Simon Roberts.

“Alongside Tracey, we’re strengthening our leadership across Technology, Commercial and Sustainability, all areas that are critical to delivering our Next Level strategy. With Rhian taking forward our combined commercial and sustainability ambition, Mark uniting technology, marketing and data, Graham leading our group strategy and the transformation of Argos, and Rob joining us as CTO, we’re building the momentum and the capabilities to move faster, serve customers better and unlock long-term growth across the group.”

Last month, Sainsbury’s reported better-than-expected first quarter sales, benefiting from warm weather and a disruption at rival Marks & Spencer. Its shares are up 8% so far this year.

NAM Implications:

• Anyone close to Sainsbury’s knows that these are fundamental changes and enhancements to Sainsbury’s ability to accelerate future growth in an unprecedented retail environment…
• …with potential rewards for suppliers that align with the retailer’s enhanced team.
• i.e. time to reconfigure supplier-retailer networks.
• Starting from where new and current team members have been…
• …and anticipating their thinking going forward.