'Making do' taking demand out of the market...?

With hopes for a continuing pre-Christmas sales revival dashed today amid signs that consumers are still limiting spending to essential items, it is perhaps useful to consider the impact of people ‘making do’ with existing products and postponing purchases of replacements in these uncertain times.

Housing demand
Essentially, taking big purchases first, how many householders are trading refurbishment and ‘extending’ for the purchase of a ‘new house’ that is a better match for growing family needs. Think of even a third of homeowners, with unprecedented access price–comparison facilities on sales costs, legal fees, removal charges and especially property values, deciding to postpone a house purchase for even a year, taking 33% out of the market

Cars & home entertainment
Similarly making do with the family car for a third year may add a little to upkeep costs, but takes another slice from new car demand. And what if large companies decide to apply the same logic to fleet replacement…?

The same with (age permitting), mobile phones, laptops, home entertainment, etc, etc, etc.

Austere eating...
When it comes to food, the impact of ‘making do’ on out-of-home eating is already obvious as people increasingly retire indoors, hopefully via a ready-meal+wine upgrade... Meanwhile, if consumers are stretching sell-by limits and not binning meal left-overs but are in fact re-heating for even one meal in three, we again have at least a third of demand removed from our sales forecasts…

The way forward...
Realistically, in an environment where only politicians and vested interests are optimistic, we need to factor these ‘making do’ drivers into business budgeting, accepting that our business models are based on ever increasing demand, and realise that in a zero-sum game, any growth is coming at the expense of the other guy.

In other words, assume that a third is knocked off your next year's sales, and seek ways of replacing those sales at the competition's expense, via a better match with consumer need...

Accordingly we need to find a way of identifying what the consumer thinks is important in our category, and communicating (and delivering ) the real difference our brand represents, better than, and at the expense of, our competitor, in a way that makes a savvy consumer come back for more…